Juventus vs AC Milan — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Juventus
45%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
AC Milan
25%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Juventus win. Expected goals 1.61–1.15 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.0%), 2–1 (8.8%), 1–0 (8.6%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Juventus
| 23 Aug | A | vs Frosinone | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Parma | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sassuolo | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–0 | W |
AC Milan
| 23 Aug | A | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Lazio | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Juventus (Home · 3 matches) | AC Milan (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Juventus's home record; away stats use AC Milan's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.