Hellas Verona arrive at this fixture in desperate shape, having lost all five of their last games and sitting 19th in the table. Their home record offers little comfort — averaging under a goal per game and conceding 1.6, they have kept a clean sheet in just 12% of home fixtures, well below the league norm. Relegation pressure is weighing heavily and there is little in their recent output to suggest a turnaround is imminent.

Como, meanwhile, have been one of the more impressive sides in the division this season, sitting fifth and carrying genuine quality in attack. Away from home they have kept a clean sheet in 44% of matches — a figure that stands out significantly against the league average — and their defensive solidity on the road makes them a difficult team to score against.

The data suggests Como are undervalued here. This looks more one-sided than a typical mid-table away trip, with the visitors in the stronger position across every relevant metric.