Genoa vs Venezia — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Genoa
45%
Draw
30%
Venezia
25%
Expected goals
1.57–1.14
Genoa · Venezia
Genoa win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.2%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–0 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Genoa win is 2–1 (9.1%).
Genoa score at least twice in 46%; Venezia in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Venezia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 14.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Genoa goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market reference | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 30% | 25% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Genoa | 2.16 |
| Draw | 3.22 |
| Venezia | 3.83 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Genoa
| 22 Aug | H | vs Napoli | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Como | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–2 | L |
Venezia
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lecce | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs AC Milan | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Fiorentina | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Genoa (Home · 4 matches) | Venezia (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Genoa's home record; away stats use Venezia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.