Genoa vs AC Milan — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Genoa
20%
Draw
26%
AC Milan
54%
Expected goals
1.07–1.78
Genoa · AC Milan
AC Milan win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.5%), 1–2 (10.4%), 0–1 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely AC Milan win is 1–2 (10.4%).
Genoa score at least twice in 29%; AC Milan in 54%.
Scoreline distribution
AC Milan goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Genoa goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 25% | 26% | 50% |
| Market reference | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Metis Forecast | 20% | 26% | 54% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Genoa | 4.66 |
| Draw | 3.58 |
| AC Milan | 1.79 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Genoa
| 22 Aug | H | vs Napoli | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Como | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–2 | L |
AC Milan
| 23 Aug | A | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Lazio | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Genoa (Home · 6 matches) | AC Milan (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Genoa's home record; away stats use AC Milan's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.