Frosinone vs Venezia — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Frosinone
37%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Venezia
36%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Frosinone win 36.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Frosinone win. Expected goals 1.38–1.36 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.1%), 2–1 (8.3%), 1–2 (8.3%). It finished 3–2.
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Frosinone
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juventus | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Fiorentina | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Venezia | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Como | 2–0 | W |
Venezia
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lecce | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs AC Milan | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Fiorentina | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Frosinone (Home · 3 matches) | Venezia (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Frosinone's home record; away stats use Venezia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.