Fiorentina head into this one in uninspiring form, picking up just one win from their last five and sitting uncomfortably in 15th. Atalanta are not much more convincing on the road, but their away average of 1.4 goals scored gives them an attacking edge that a side of Fiorentina's defensive fragility may struggle to contain.

The goal data is the most telling angle here. Both sides post a BTTS rate of 61% in their respective home and away fixtures, well above the Serie A average of 45%, and Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in only a third of home games. Goals feel likely, even if the volume may not be excessive given Atalanta's away O2.5 rate of 39% sits below the league norm.

The limited head-to-head sample favours Atalanta, and the form table does too. This looks like a closer contest than the standings gap implies, but the visitors carry the more reliable threat.