Cremonese have been poor at home this season, averaging under a goal per game while conceding 1.4, and their recent run of one win in five does little to inspire confidence. Sitting 17th, they are not safe yet, but they face a Pisa side in even deeper trouble at the foot of the table and without a win in their last five away from home.

What stands out in the data is Pisa's away defensive record, which is alarming. They have kept a clean sheet in just 6% of away games, conceding an average of 2.4 per match, and their BTTS and Over 2.5 rates on the road are both well above the league average. Even against a Cremonese side that struggles to create, goals look likely here.

This feels like a fixture where both teams' desperation to accumulate points could produce a more open game than the quality on show might suggest. The goals data points firmly in one direction.