Como vs Venezia — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Como
77%
Draw
14%
Venezia
9%
Expected goals
2.44–0.83
Como · Venezia
Como win 77% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12.3%), 2–1 (11.7%), 1–0 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Como score at least twice in 72%; Venezia in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Venezia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Como goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 67% | 21% | 13% |
| Market reference | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Metis Forecast | 77% | 14% | 9% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Como
| 22 Aug | A | vs Udinese | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Napoli | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Parma | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 0–2 | L |
Venezia
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lecce | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs AC Milan | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Fiorentina | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Como (Home · 2 matches) | Venezia (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Como's home record; away stats use Venezia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.