Como arrive at this one in remarkable shape, sitting fifth and having won three of their last five at home, conceding under a goal per game on average in front of their own fans. That defensive solidity stands out — a clean sheet rate of 47% at home and an average of just 0.9 conceded per game makes them a genuinely tough nut to crack, even for a side of Napoli's quality.

Napoli come in with four straight away wins and a draw, but their attacking output on the road has been modest — averaging 1.3 goals per game away from home. Their BTTS rate of 41% in away fixtures is notably below the Serie A average of 46%, pointing to relatively contained affairs when they travel.

The one previous meeting ended in a draw, and the underlying numbers here support a tight, low-scoring contest. This looks more competitive than a simple glance at the standings might suggest, with Como undervalued as hosts.