Cagliari arrive at this fixture in alarming form, having lost four of their last five at home and sitting just two points clear of the relegation zone. Their attacking output has been modest all season, and a side under that kind of pressure rarely finds fluency against top-half opposition. Atalanta, meanwhile, have steadied after a mid-season wobble and carry genuine quality through the lines, even if their away form has been inconsistent of late.

The defensive numbers are the real story here. Both sides have kept clean sheets at a higher rate than the league average this season, and Cagliari's home games in particular have been low-scoring affairs. Atalanta concede sparingly on the road, and this fixture does not scream goals.

This looks tighter and lower-scoring than the casual eye might expect. The data suggests Atalanta have enough quality to take something from this game, and the visitors appear undervalued given Cagliari's current trajectory.