Bologna vs Monza — Serie A forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bologna
55%
Draw
25%
Monza
21%
Expected goals
1.80–1.10
Bologna · Monza
Bologna win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (10.9%), 1–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Bologna win is 2–1 (10.9%).
Bologna score at least twice in 55%; Monza in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Monza goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bologna goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 25% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Bologna | 1.76 |
| Draw | 3.79 |
| Monza | 4.50 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Bologna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
Monza
| 22 Aug | A | vs Inter | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Udinese | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bologna (Home · 4 matches) | Monza (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Bologna's home record; away stats use Monza's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.