Two sides separated by just one place in the table meet in what looks like a tight mid-table finish to the season. Atalanta's home form has been inconsistent, picking up just one win from their last five at home, while Bologna arrive with a mixed away record of their own. Neither side is in particularly convincing shape heading into Sunday.

The numbers tell an interesting story. Atalanta at home have been relatively low-scoring and defensively solid, with a clean sheet rate well above the norm and an Over 2.5 rate of just 39% compared to the league average of 45%. Bologna away, however, carry considerably more attacking threat, with their BTTS and Over 2.5 figures both sitting above the league average. That tension between Atalanta's defensive home record and Bologna's ability to find the net on the road makes the goals angle genuinely compelling.

The limited head-to-head data favours Atalanta, but this looks tighter than a one-place gap might imply. The visitors are not without merit here.