AS Roma vs Sassuolo — Serie A forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AS Roma
73%
Draw
16%
Sassuolo
11%
Expected goals
2.54–0.91
AS Roma · Sassuolo
AS Roma win 73% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.5%), 2–1 (9.8%), 3–0 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
AS Roma score at least twice in 73%; Sassuolo in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Sassuolo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AS Roma goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Market reference | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 73% | 16% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | 1.32 |
| Draw | 5.72 |
| Sassuolo | 8.17 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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AS Roma
| 24 Aug | H | vs Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Inter | 2–2 | D |
Sassuolo
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Monza | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AS Roma (Home · 5 matches) | Sassuolo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.80 | 3.60 |
Home stats use AS Roma's home record; away stats use Sassuolo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.