AS Roma vs Inter — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
AS Roma
36%
Draw
28%
result
Inter
36%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 27.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Inter win. Expected goals 1.46–1.49 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 2–1 (8.4%), 1–2 (8.1%). It finished 2–2.
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AS Roma
| 24 Aug | H | vs Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Inter | 2–2 | D |
Inter
| 22 Aug | H | vs Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AS Roma (Home · 5 matches) | Inter (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.80 | 3.00 |
Home stats use AS Roma's home record; away stats use Inter's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.