Roma come into this one inconsistently, alternating wins and losses across their last five, though their home defensive record this season has been exceptional. Conceding less than a goal per game at the Olimpico and keeping a clean sheet in over half their home fixtures, they sit well below the league average for both BTTS and goals, making them one of Serie A's more defensively compact sides in front of their own supporters.

Fiorentina's away form tells a very different story. Four wins from five on the road, with BTTS and Over 2.5 both firing well above the league average in their away matches. They carry a genuine threat going forward but have leaked goals regularly away from home, suggesting games involving them tend to be open affairs.

The tension between Roma's defensive solidity at home and Fiorentina's attacking away momentum makes this genuinely intriguing. Fiorentina's road form looks underappreciated given their league position, and this contest could be tighter than expected.