AS Roma vs Cagliari — Serie A forecast, Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AS Roma
72%
Draw
19%
Cagliari
9%
Expected goals
2.50–0.77
AS Roma · Cagliari
AS Roma win 72% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.3%), 3–0 (9.8%), 1–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
AS Roma score at least twice in 70%; Cagliari in 18%.
Scoreline distribution
Cagliari goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AS Roma goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Market reference | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Metis Forecast | 72% | 19% | 9% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | 1.34 |
| Draw | 4.80 |
| Cagliari | 9.84 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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AS Roma
| 24 Aug | H | vs Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Inter | 2–2 | D |
Cagliari
| 22 Aug | A | vs Parma | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Inter | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AS Roma (Home · 4 matches) | Cagliari (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.25 |
Home stats use AS Roma's home record; away stats use Cagliari's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.