AS Roma vs Atalanta — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
AS Roma
57%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Atalanta
19%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave an AS Roma win 57.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AS Roma win. Expected goals 1.71–1.00 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.3%), 2–1 (11.8%), 1–1 (11.3%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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AS Roma
| 24 Aug | H | vs Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Inter | 2–2 | D |
Atalanta
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AS Roma (Home · 3 matches) | Atalanta (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 2.50 |
Home stats use AS Roma's home record; away stats use Atalanta's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.