AC Milan vs Lecce — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AC Milan
77%
Draw
15%
Lecce
7%
Expected goals
2.42–0.64
AC Milan · Lecce
AC Milan win 77% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (14.1%), 1–0 (11.2%), 3–0 (11.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 43% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
AC Milan score at least twice in 70%; Lecce in 13%.
Scoreline distribution
Lecce goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AC Milan goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| Market reference | 77% | 15% | 7% |
| Metis Forecast | 77% | 15% | 7% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.26 | 1.24 | 1.29 1xBet |
| Draw | 6.01 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 6.21 | 5.90 | 5.50 | 6.00 | 5.85 | 5.03 | 6.21 1xBet |
| Lecce | 11.80 | 12.00 | 11.00 | 13.00 | 12.50 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 12.25 | 8.30 | 13.00 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
AC Milan
| 23 Aug | A | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Lazio | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
Lecce
| 23 Aug | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs AC Milan | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AC Milan (Home · 2 matches) | Lecce (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.00 |
Home stats use AC Milan's home record; away stats use Lecce's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.