AC Milan vs Inter — Serie A forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AC Milan
30%
Draw
26%
Inter
44%
Expected goals
1.36–1.68
AC Milan · Inter
Inter win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 1–2 (9.0%), 2–1 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Inter win is 1–2 (9.0%).
AC Milan score at least twice in 39%; Inter in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Inter goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AC Milan goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 25% | 45% |
| Market reference | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 26% | 44% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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AC Milan
| 23 Aug | A | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Lazio | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
Inter
| 22 Aug | H | vs Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AC Milan (Home · 3 matches) | Inter (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.00 |
Home stats use AC Milan's home record; away stats use Inter's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.