AC Milan head into this one in poor home form, winning just one of their last five at San Siro, and with a league position that reflects a difficult second half of the season. Their home scoring average of 1.3 per game is modest, and they have kept clean sheets in just under four in ten home matches. Cagliari arrive with a mixed away record but have been involved in more open games on the road, with BTTS and Over 2.5 both triggering in 61% of their away fixtures — well above the Serie A average of 45% and 46% respectively. They have kept just one clean sheet in eleven away days, which keeps Milan's attacking threat relevant despite their inconsistency.

The H2H sample is too small to lean on, but the contrasting profiles here are interesting. Cagliari's leaky away defensive record against a Milan side that needs points to consolidate a European spot suggests goals are more likely than the hosts' home numbers alone imply. This game looks more open than a mid-table clash might suggest.