AC Milan vs Bologna — Serie A forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AC Milan
59%
Draw
23%
Bologna
17%
Expected goals
1.92–0.95
AC Milan · Bologna
AC Milan win 59% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.0%), 2–0 (10.5%), 1–0 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely AC Milan win is 2–0 (10.5%).
AC Milan score at least twice in 57%; Bologna in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Bologna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AC Milan goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market reference | 59% | 23% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 59% | 23% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.62 |
| Draw | 4.03 |
| Bologna | 5.26 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
AC Milan
| 23 Aug | A | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Lazio | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
Bologna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AC Milan (Home · 3 matches) | Bologna (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 1.67 |
Home stats use AC Milan's home record; away stats use Bologna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.