West Ham head into this one in desperate trouble, sitting 18th and having taken just one point from their last five home games. Their defensive record at home is alarming, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in just 11% of home matches. With both teams to score landing in 61% of their home games, and Leeds triggering BTTS in 67% of away fixtures, both figures sitting well above the league average of 56%, goals look likely here.

Leeds arrive in far better shape, unbeaten in four of their last five away days with three wins in that run. That away form is quietly impressive for a mid-table side and the visitors look undervalued given the context.

With West Ham potentially already relegated or fighting for survival, the pressure is firmly on the hosts, but the form data points firmly toward Leeds leaving with something. This looks tighter than a home fixture might suggest.