West Ham head into this one in precarious shape, sitting 17th and showing inconsistent home form with just two wins in their last five. Their defensive record at the London Stadium has been a real concern this season, conceding nearly two goals per game at home and keeping a clean sheet just 12% of the time. That exposure suits an Arsenal side that has been clinical on the road, averaging 1.6 goals per away game while conceding less than one.

Arsenal's away clean sheet rate of 41% stands well above the league norm, and their opponents' BTTS rate drops noticeably against them. West Ham however do generate enough at home to test most backlines, making this more competitive than it might appear on paper.

The one previous meeting this season ended in Arsenal's favour, and form points to the visitors being well-placed to control this. This looks like a fixture where Arsenal are undervalued as a defensive unit on the road.