Tottenham find themselves in serious relegation trouble at 18th, and their home form offers little comfort — just one win in their last five at home, with three defeats in that run. They are leaking goals at an alarming rate, averaging 1.8 conceded per home game, and their clean sheet rate of just 12% is well below what a side fighting for survival can afford. Their BTTS rate of 71% at home stands notably above the league average of 55%, signalling that goals tend to flow in both directions when Spurs host.

Leeds arrive in better shape, unbeaten in four of their last five away days with two wins in that stretch. The visitors look the more stable outfit right now, and the data suggests they are undervalued here given the gulf in current form.

With both sides conceding freely, goals look likely. This feels like a match that plays out closer than a home fixture might traditionally suggest, with Leeds the more dangerous side on current evidence.