Tottenham head into this one in desperate need of points, sitting 17th and fighting to avoid relegation. Their home form is mixed — three wins offset by two draws and a defeat — but the numbers behind those results are concerning. They are conceding 1.7 goals per game at home and keeping clean sheets just 11% of the time, making them one of the leakier sides in the division. Their BTTS rate of 72% at home sits well above the league average of 56%, so goals at both ends have been a consistent theme.

Everton arrive in poor away form, winning none of their last five on the road, though they have shown defensive solidity away from home, keeping clean sheets 28% of the time with an average of just 1.2 conceded. Their away BTTS and Over 2.5 rates both sit well below the league average, suggesting they travel with a more conservative shape.

The tension of a relegation six-pointer for Spurs against a defensively organised Everton side makes this a tricky read. Despite the underlying goal data, this one looks tighter and lower-scoring than the home stats alone might imply.