Sunderland head into this one in decent home shape, winning three of their last five at the Stadium of Light, though their underlying numbers tell a cautious story. They average just 1.4 goals scored at home while keeping things tight defensively, with a 38% clean sheet rate and an O2.5 rate of 44% — well below the league average of 54%. They tend to make games compact and low-scoring on their own patch.

Man Utd away from home is a different beast entirely. Their BTTS rate of 82% and O2.5 rate of 71% are both significantly above league averages, and a clean sheet rate of just 12% on the road signals they regularly leave the door open. They score freely but concede freely too, averaging 1.5 goals allowed per away game.

The contrasting styles here are striking. Sunderland's defensive discipline at home clashes with United's open, high-tempo away profile. The goals data leans toward a lively game, and the visitors look capable of making this competitive despite the gap in league position.