Nottm Forest head into this one unbeaten in three at home, but their underlying numbers tell a cautious story. They average just 1.1 goals scored per home game and keep clean sheets only 24% of the time, while their BTTS rate of 41% sits well below the league average of 55%. This is a side that grinds rather than entertains, and that low-scoring profile has been consistent all season.

Newcastle arrive in poor away form, losing three of their last five on the road, and conceding 1.3 per game away from home. Their BTTS rate in away fixtures is a more typical 56%, suggesting they tend to contribute to open games when travelling, even if results haven't followed.

The head-to-head is limited but favoured Newcastle in the only recent meeting. With Forest's compressed home game profile and Newcastle's struggles on the road, this looks tighter than the table positions suggest, with goals potentially at a premium.