Nottm Forest vs Coventry — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Nottm Forest
60%
top pick
Draw
24%
Coventry
17%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Coventry win 16.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nottm Forest win. Expected goals 1.73–0.86 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.5%), 2–0 (11.6%), 1–1 (11.2%). It finished 0–1.
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Nottm Forest
| 22 Aug | H | vs Leeds | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Liverpool | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Aston Villa | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Coventry | 0–1 | L |
Coventry
| 21 Aug | A | vs Arsenal | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Hull | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Man City | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Brighton | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Nottm Forest | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nottm Forest (Home · 4 matches) | Coventry (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 0.75 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Nottm Forest's home record; away stats use Coventry's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.