Nottm Forest head into this late-season fixture in decent home form, picking up three wins from their last five at the City Ground, but a 16th-place finish tells the fuller story of a side that has struggled for consistency all campaign. Their home numbers are notably low-scoring — averaging just 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with BTTS and Over 2.5 both landing at 44%, well below the league average of 55% in both categories.

Bournemouth arrive in excellent shape, losing just once in their last five away from home, and their away record is where the contrast sharpens. They average 1.6 goals scored on the road with BTTS and Over 2.5 both hitting 67%, comfortably above league norms. The sole H2H meeting went Bournemouth's way.

The visitors look the stronger side on current form and carry a genuine goal threat. This fixture looks more open than Forest's home record might suggest, with Bournemouth undervalued as the away side.