Newcastle arrive at this fixture in alarming form, having lost four of their last five at home, and sitting 13th despite the expectation of a stronger campaign. Their home record tells a chaotic story — BTTS in 78% of home games and over 2.5 goals in the same proportion, well above the league average of 55% on both counts. They score but they concede, and clean sheets have arrived just 17% of the time at St. James' Park this season.

West Ham come in as the lower-ranked side but have shown more resilience on the road than their relegation-threatened position suggests — winning two of their last five away and keeping clean sheets in 22% of away fixtures. Their away BTTS rate of 44% is notably below the league norm, suggesting tighter, lower-scoring affairs on their travels.

The only H2H meeting this season ended in a West Ham win. Given Newcastle's defensive frailty and West Ham's capacity to grind results, this looks tighter than many will expect.