Man Utd head into this one in strong form, winning three of their last four at home after a shaky start to that run, and a top-three finish likely depends on results here. Nottm Forest have been remarkably solid away from home this season, losing none of their last five on the road and keeping clean sheets in nearly a third of those trips. The single H2H meeting this season ended all square, which fits a pattern of Forest making themselves hard to beat against stronger sides.

The goals data is interesting. Man Utd's home BTTS rate of 67% sits well above the league average of 55%, suggesting they tend to be involved in open games at Old Trafford. Forest away, however, have seen BTTS in just 41% of matches, well below the norm, pointing to a more contained, defensive shape on their travels.

This looks tighter than a home win at face value. Forest are quietly undervalued as a side capable of frustrating top-half teams.