Man Utd vs Man City — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 31.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Man Utd
30%
Draw
25%
Man City
46%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Man City win 45.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Man City win. Expected goals 1.32–1.67 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.4%), 1–2 (9.6%), 0–1 (7.8%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
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Man Utd
| 22 Aug | A | vs Hull | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ipswich | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Everton | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Man City | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 1–1 | D |
Man City
| 23 Aug | H | vs Bournemouth | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Crystal Palace | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Coventry | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Man Utd | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sunderland | 5–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Man Utd (Home · 4 matches) | Man City (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Man Utd's home record; away stats use Man City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.