Man Utd sit third and come into this on a patchy run of two wins from five at home, though their defensive record at Old Trafford has been reasonably solid with an average of 1.2 conceded per game. Liverpool away have been inconsistent too, winning just once in their last five on the road, and their defensive vulnerability travelling — averaging 1.6 conceded per game away from home — gives United genuine reason for confidence here.

The goalscoring data makes this one interesting. Both sides carry a BTTS rate of 62% in their respective home and away fixtures, notably above the league average of 56%. Liverpool's away matches also land over 2.5 goals 69% of the time against a league average of 54%, suggesting open games tend to follow them on the road.

The limited head-to-head sample favours United, and with home advantage and Liverpool's away fragility in mind, this looks tighter than a top-five clash might suggest, but United are quietly undervalued here.