Man City head into this one in decent nick, winning three of their last five at home, and their attacking output at the Etihad has been impressive — averaging 2.4 goals per game while keeping 44% of home clean sheets. Palace away from home is a mixed picture, taking just one win from their last five on the road, conceding in 71% of away fixtures, and averaging 1.4 goals against per game travelling.

The goals data leans heavily toward City here. Their home Over 2.5 rate of 69% sits well above the league average of 55%, and with Palace's defensive fragility on the road, the conditions are there for a high-scoring afternoon. BTTS looks slightly less compelling given City's strong clean sheet record at home.

Form, position, and recent head-to-head all point the same way. This looks like a comfortable City afternoon, and the margin of victory could be wider than some expect.