Man City head into this late-season clash in strong home form, winning four of their last five at home and carrying genuine title-race momentum from second place. Their home record this season has been defensively exceptional — keeping clean sheets in half their home games and conceding an average of just 0.7 goals, well below the league norm. Aston Villa, meanwhile, have been inconsistent on the road, winning just once in their last five away fixtures and conceding at a rate that makes a shutout here entirely plausible.

The goals data tells an interesting story. City's home matches have gone over 2.5 in nearly three quarters of games, driven by their 2.4 average scored, yet BTTS has landed in under half — suggesting they tend to dominate and keep things clean. Villa's away BTTS of 61% cuts against that, but their defensive frailty on the road is a concern.

This looks more one-sided than a top-half clash might suggest. The visitors are in poor away form at the worst possible time, and City at home are a formidable proposition.