Leeds arrive at Elland Road in inconsistent form, winning just one of their last five, while Burnley have been dire on the road, failing to win any of their last five away fixtures and shipping goals consistently throughout. Burnley have kept a clean sheet in none of their away games this season, conceding an average of 2.4 per match on the road, which is a significant concern for a side already planted in the relegation zone.

The goal data here is compelling. Burnley's away matches see BTTS land at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 69%, both well above the league average, and even Leeds' home games sit at a respectable 56% for both metrics. This matchup looks like a genuine goal environment.

With Burnley desperate for points but leaking heavily away from home, Leeds should find openings. This looks like a game that tilts in the home side's favour, even if Leeds' own form has been far from convincing.