Ipswich vs Nottm Forest — Premier League forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Ipswich
30%
Draw
28%
Nottm Forest
43%
Expected goals
1.23–1.49
Ipswich · Nottm Forest
Nottm Forest win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–2 (9.3%), 0–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Nottm Forest win is 1–2 (9.3%).
Ipswich score at least twice in 35%; Nottm Forest in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Nottm Forest goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Ipswich goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market reference | 30% | 28% | 43% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 28% | 43% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Ipswich | 3.26 |
| Draw | 3.50 |
| Nottm Forest | 2.27 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Fantasy impact · GW8
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Ipswich
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sunderland | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Man Utd | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Liverpool | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Crystal Palace | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Everton | 0–1 | L |
Nottm Forest
| 22 Aug | H | vs Leeds | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Liverpool | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Aston Villa | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Coventry | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ipswich (Home · 3 matches) | Nottm Forest (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Ipswich's home record; away stats use Nottm Forest's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.