Hull vs Brentford — Premier League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hull
20%
Draw
23%
Brentford
58%
Expected goals
0.99–1.76
Hull · Brentford
Brentford win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (11.3%), 1–1 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Hull score at least twice in 26%; Brentford in 54%.
Scoreline distribution
Brentford goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hull goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Market reference | 20% | 23% | 58% |
| Metis Forecast | 20% | 23% | 58% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hull | 4.84 |
| Draw | 4.17 |
| Brentford | 1.69 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Fantasy impact · GW8
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Hull
| 22 Aug | H | vs Man Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Coventry | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Aston Villa | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Chelsea | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Newcastle | 1–2 | L |
Brentford
| 22 Aug | H | vs Tottenham | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Leeds | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Sunderland | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Chelsea | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hull (Home · 3 matches) | Brentford (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Hull's home record; away stats use Brentford's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.