Fulham vs Man Utd — Premier League forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Fulham
27%
Draw
25%
Man Utd
48%
Expected goals
1.16–1.61
Fulham · Man Utd
Man Utd win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (9.9%), 0–1 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Man Utd win is 1–2 (9.9%).
Fulham score at least twice in 32%; Man Utd in 48%.
Scoreline distribution
Man Utd goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Fulham goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Market reference | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Metis Forecast | 27% | 25% | 48% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 3.54 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.62 | 3.55 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.56 | 3.04 | 3.62 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.90 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.75 | 3.90 | 3.84 | 3.35 | 3.90 Bet365 |
| Man Utd | 2.03 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.07 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.04 | 1.99 | 2.07 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Fulham
| 24 Aug | H | vs Chelsea | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sunderland | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Liverpool | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Man Utd | 1–1 | D |
Man Utd
| 22 Aug | A | vs Hull | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ipswich | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Everton | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Man City | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fulham (Home · 3 matches) | Man Utd (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Fulham's home record; away stats use Man Utd's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.