Fulham vs Man Utd — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Fulham
27%
Draw
25%
result
Man Utd
49%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Man Utd win. Expected goals 1.16–1.62 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (10.0%), 0–1 (9.8%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Fulham
| 24 Aug | H | vs Chelsea | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sunderland | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Liverpool | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Man Utd | 1–1 | D |
Man Utd
| 22 Aug | A | vs Hull | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ipswich | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Everton | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Man City | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fulham (Home · 4 matches) | Man Utd (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Fulham's home record; away stats use Man Utd's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.