Fulham vs Crystal Palace — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Fulham
45%
top pick
Draw
29%
Crystal Palace
26%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Crystal Palace win 26.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Fulham win. Expected goals 1.57–1.17 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–0 (8.9%). It finished 2–3.
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Fulham
| 24 Aug | H | vs Chelsea | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sunderland | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Liverpool | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Man Utd | 1–1 | D |
Crystal Palace
| 22 Aug | A | vs Everton | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Man City | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ipswich | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fulham (Home · 3 matches) | Crystal Palace (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Fulham's home record; away stats use Crystal Palace's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.