Everton vs Man Utd — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Everton
27%
Draw
26%
result
Man Utd
47%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Man Utd win. Expected goals 1.15–1.56 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.5%), 0–1 (9.9%), 1–2 (9.8%). It finished 2–2.
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Everton
| 22 Aug | H | vs Crystal Palace | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Bournemouth | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Man Utd | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Ipswich | 1–0 | W |
Man Utd
| 22 Aug | A | vs Hull | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ipswich | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Everton | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Man City | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Everton (Home · 3 matches) | Man Utd (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Everton's home record; away stats use Man Utd's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.