Everton head into this one in inconsistent form, alternating between wins and defeats across their last five home outings, while Man City arrive on the back of an unbeaten run of five away games. The visitors sit second in the table and have been efficient on the road, averaging 1.7 goals scored per away game with a clean sheet rate that comfortably outpaces the league norm. Everton have been relatively solid defensively at home, conceding 1.2 on average, but their attack lacks the punch to seriously trouble a well-organised City backline.

The scoring data paints a low-scoring picture. Both sides sit notably below the league average for BTTS and Over 2.5 goals in their respective home and away games this season. The limited H2H data points in City's favour. This looks like a game where City control without necessarily cutting loose, and the visitors appear undervalued if the market is giving Everton too much credit for home advantage.