Everton vs Ipswich — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Everton
54%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Ipswich
22%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Everton win 53.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Everton win. Expected goals 1.73–1.04 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–0 (10.4%), 2–1 (10.3%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Everton
| 22 Aug | H | vs Crystal Palace | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Bournemouth | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Man Utd | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Ipswich | 1–0 | W |
Ipswich
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sunderland | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Man Utd | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Liverpool | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Crystal Palace | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Everton | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Everton (Home · 4 matches) | Ipswich (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Everton's home record; away stats use Ipswich's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.