Crystal Palace vs Ipswich — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Crystal Palace
51%
top pick
Draw
26%
Ipswich
23%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Ipswich win 23.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Crystal Palace win. Expected goals 1.65–1.16 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.1%), 2–1 (11.5%), 1–0 (10.5%). It finished 2–3.
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Crystal Palace
| 22 Aug | A | vs Everton | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Man City | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ipswich | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 0–0 | D |
Ipswich
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sunderland | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Man Utd | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Liverpool | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Crystal Palace | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Everton | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Crystal Palace (Home · 4 matches) | Ipswich (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Crystal Palace's home record; away stats use Ipswich's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.