Crystal Palace head into this one in poor shape, winless in four of their last five at home and sitting in 15th place with little to play for. Their home record this season has been quietly underwhelming — averaging just one goal per game and keeping clean sheets in over a third of matches, but conceding more than they score overall. This is not a side built to hurt a top-end defence.

Arsenal arrive in fine form, winning three of their last five away from home and sitting top of the table. On the road they have been solid rather than spectacular, but their defensive record is notably strong. Both teams score and over 2.5 goals land well below the league average in both fixtures, pointing to a controlled, lower-scoring affair.

The table gap is significant and Arsenal's away momentum gives them a clear edge. This looks more comfortable for the visitors than a Palace home fixture might typically suggest.