Chelsea head into this fixture in alarming form, failing to win any of their last five league games and picking up just a single point. That run has left them sitting ninth, and there is little in the underlying data to suggest a revival is imminent. Their home record this season has been ordinary at best, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match, with clean sheets in fewer than a third of home games.

Tottenham, by contrast, have shown genuine signs of life away from home, winning two of their last five on the road and drawing two more. Their away scoring average of 1.4 goals per game edges Chelsea's home output, and they have kept the sheet clean a third of the time on their travels.

The form picture strongly favours the visitors here, and this looks like a match where Tottenham are undervalued despite their league position. Spurs' away momentum against a Chelsea side in freefall makes this tighter than the gap in the standings implies.