Chelsea arrive at Stamford Bridge in genuinely poor form, having won just one of their last five at home, a run that will concern anyone backing the hosts to bounce back here. Sixth place and a difficult run of results paint a picture of a side lacking consistency, and their home BTTS and Over 2.5 rates of 53% sit fractionally below the league average, suggesting matches here are not as open as you might expect.

Forest, meanwhile, are quietly dangerous on the road. Four unbeaten in their last five away from home is a strong return for a side sitting 16th, and their away goal average of 1.1 per game shows they carry a real threat. Their BTTS rate of 44% away from home is notably below the league average of 56%, hinting at tighter, more controlled affairs.

This looks considerably tighter than Chelsea's home status might suggest. Forest's away resilience is being undervalued here.