Bournemouth head into this one unbeaten in four at home but have drawn three of their last five overall, suggesting a team that grinds results rather than dominates. Sitting seventh, they have genuine European ambitions to protect, and their home record reflects a side that is hard to break down, conceding an average of 1.1 per game on their own patch with a clean sheet rate of 29%.

Crystal Palace arrive in decent enough shape away from home, winning two of their last four on the road, and their defensive record travels well too. However, the goals data here is the most telling angle. Bournemouth's home BTTS rate of 65% sits notably above the league average of 55%, yet their Over 2.5 rate of 47% is well below the league norm of 54%, pointing toward tight, competitive matches that tend to find the net at both ends without running away.

This looks like a closer contest than the table gap implies, and Palace look undervalued as away sides go.