Aston Villa arrive at this fixture in poor recent form, losing three of their last five, but their league position tells a more reliable story — fourth place reflects a consistent body of work across the season. At home, Villa have been defensively solid, keeping clean sheets in over a third of home matches and conceding under a goal per game on average. Their BTTS rate of 44% sits well below the league average of 56%, which points to games at Villa Park being tighter and lower-scoring affairs than most.

Tottenham are in genuine trouble, sitting 18th and winning just once in their last five away from home. They concede 1.4 per away game and have failed to keep a clean sheet regularly on the road, but their over 2.5 rate of 62% away suggests their matches tend to be open.

The combination of Villa's defensive home structure against a Spurs side low on confidence makes this look tighter and lower-scoring than Tottenham's away numbers alone might suggest. The hosts are undervalued here.