Aston Villa head into this one in inconsistent form, winning just two of their last five at home, while Liverpool arrive with three wins in their previous four away from Anfield before a stumble last time out. With both sides in the top five and separated by a single position, the stakes are high for European qualification, which adds an edge to what already looks like a competitive fixture.

The goal data is where this gets interesting. Liverpool's away record shows BTTS triggering in 67% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 72%, both well above the league averages, and they concede on the road at a rate that gives Villa genuine hope of finding the net. Villa at home sit below the BTTS league average at 50%, but their clean sheet rate of just 33% suggests Liverpool will likely threaten.

The one previous meeting went Liverpool's way, and their away attacking output makes them hard to oppose here, though Villa's home resilience could keep this closer than the standings imply.